MBVD: The "600,000 Iraq Death Toll" Debunked.....Again?

Thursday, July 26, 2007

The "600,000 Iraq Death Toll" Debunked.....Again?

New Critique of the Lancet's Civilian Death Claims

In 2004, British medical journal The Lancet released a study in the final days leading up to the US presidential election. Their attempted October Surprise was heavily promoted by international media and the international left (there’s a difference?), and claimed the US was responsible for more than 100,000 civilian deaths in Iraq. Then, in 2006, they published another study with even more wildly inflated claims.

Today Michelle Malkin has posted a new critique of the Lancet’s 2004 study, a statistical analysis by David Kane, Institute Fellow at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University—who identifies serious problems in the Lancet’s methodology: Document drop: A new critique of the 2004 Lancet Iraq death toll study.

Much of the math here is mind-numbingly complicated, but Kane’s bottom line is simple: the Lancet authors “cannot reject the null hypothesis that mortality in Iraq is unchanged.” Translation: according to Kane, the confidence interval for the Lancet authors’ main finding is wrong. Had the authors calculated the confidence interval correctly, Kane asserts that they would have failed to identify a statistically significant increase in risk of death in Iraq, let alone the widely-reported 98,000 excess civilian deaths.

An interesting side note: as Kane observes in his paper, the Lancet authors “refuse to provide anyone with the underlying data (or even a precise description of the actual methodology).” The researchers did release some high-level summary data in highly aggregated form (see here), but they released neither the detailed interviewee-level data nor the programming code that would be necessary to replicate their results.

Note: Of course the left will refute any new statistical analysis of the Lancet Study regarding the claimed 600,000 Iraq death toll.

Clarity in analyzing studies is a primary goal of any researcher and should be part of the critical analysis of a given subject overall.

The fact that the Lancet Study has been refuted in the past, due largely to their refusal to provide the data they used for drawing their conclusions should immediately produce "red flags" with regard to unbiased truth and authenticity. Yet today this study is widely accepted as fact.

Critical thinking supported by all.....I say again ALL the...factual data and then made readily available to researchers leads to clarity on any subject.

So draw your own conclusions.

In my opinion, the Lancet Study is seriously flawed in it's attempt to provide a meaningful analysis of the actual data available. As has been stated elsewhere...2 + 2 does NOT equal 5, at least not in any of the math classes I had while studying Electrical Engineering..........

Dean

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SOLDIER"S ANGELS NEEDS YOUR HELP!

The Veterans Hospital in Tucson needs our help!!! They have contacted Soldiers' Angels with a list of needs for their patients. Soldiers Angels needs your help in making some of these come true.

Below you will find just a small portion of needs that are immediate. You can also find this list posted on the Soldiers Angels Forum at www.soldiersangelsforum.com you will be able to find lots of great information there for our deployed and vets.

If you are sending a monetary donation please follow the link and indicate the State you are in.

Donate here;
Ttp://soldiersangels.org/index.php?page=veterans-support

COMFORT ITEMS- $350/MO
Dry Skin Cream
Slipper Socks-No skid
Catheter bag covers
Shaving Cream
Hand Lotion
Baby Shampoo
Hand Soap
Roll on/Spray Deodorant
Denture Cleaner
Underwear (men and women (all sizes)
Toothbrushes
Denture Grip
Socks (white)
Talcum Powder
Nail Clippers
Toothpaste
Ladies hand and body lotion
Backpacks
Disposable Razors
Comb/Brushes
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Shaving Cream/small
Knitted Caps
Travel Alarm Clocks
Ball Caps
Tote Bags
Shower Shoes
Pocket Size Needle and Thread Kit
Heart pillows for cardiac patients
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GUEST SERVICES
30 cup coffee makers
Coffee supplies (reg. & decaf)
Music CDs
Stamps
Writing Paper and Envelopes
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Puzzle books
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Tickets for entertainment & sporting events
Balls, badminton set, Frisbees, football)

If you can send just one item that would be great!!! If each person sends one thing we will make a difference! They are also needing those who can volunteer time at the hospital just contact the Voluntary Services Dept. For information.

Mail Items to:

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PLEASE HELP US HELP THOSE WHO FOUGHT FOR OUR FREEDOM!

My Favorite Speeches and Other Items of Interest

George Bush's March 28, 2007 Discusses Economy, War on Terror During Remarks to the National Cattlemen's Beef Association;http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/03/20070328-2.html
Mitch McConnell's March 15, 2007 Funding For Troops, Not Timelines for Retreat; http://mcconnell.senate.gov/record.cfm?id=270747&start=1
Ronald Reagan's June 12, 1987 Tear Down This Wall Speech; http://www.reaganfoundation.org/reagan/speeches/wall.asp
Vice President Cheney's March 12, 2007 Remarks at the AIPAC 2007 Policy Conference; http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/03/20070312.html

Winston Churchill Quotes

A prisoner of war is a man who tries to kill you and fails, and then asks you not to kill him.
Although personally I am quite content with existing explosives, I feel we must not stand in the path of improvement.
Although prepared for martyrdom, I preferred that it be postponed.
Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference.
Battles are won by slaughter and maneuver. The greater the general, the more he contributes in maneuver, the less he demands in slaughter.
Danger - if you meet it promptly and without flinching - you will reduce the danger by half. Never run away from anything. Never!
I always seem to get inspiration and renewed vitality by contact with this great novel land of yours which sticks up out of the Atlantic.
I am an optimist. It does not seem too much use being anything else.
I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.
I like a man who grins when he fights.
I was only the servant of my country and had I, at any moment, failed to express her unflinching resolve to fight and conquer, I should at once have been rightly cast aside.
If you have an important point to make, don't try to be subtle or clever. Use a pile driver. Hit the point once. Then come back and hit it again. Then hit it a third time-a tremendous whack.
In war as in life, it is often necessary when some cherished scheme has failed, to take up the best alternative open, and if so, it is folly not to work for it with all your might.
It is no use saying, 'We are doing our best.' You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.
Moral of the Work. In war: resolution. In defeat: defiance. In victory: magnanimity. In peace: goodwill.
Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.
Never, never, never give up.
No folly is more costly than the folly of intolerant idealism.
One ought never to turn one's back on a threatened danger and try to run away from it. If you do that, you will double the danger. But if you meet it promptly and without flinching, you will reduce the danger by half. Never run away from anything. Never!
Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.
Success is not final, failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.
The first quality that is needed is audacity.
The nose of the bulldog has been slanted backwards so that he can breathe without letting go.
The truth is incontrovertible, malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end; there it is.
There is no such thing as public opinion. There is only published opinion.
These are not dark days: these are great days - the greatest days our country has ever lived.
They are decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all-powerful to be impotent.
True genius resides in the capacity for evaluation of uncertain, hazardous, and conflicting information.
Victory at all costs, victory in spite of all terror, victory however long and hard the road may be; for without victory, there is no survival.
War is a game that is played with a smile. If you can't smile, grin. If you can't grin, keep out of the way till you can.
War is mainly a catalogue of blunders.
We shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.
We shall draw from the heart of suffering itself the means of inspiration and survival.
When the eagles are silent the parrots begin to jabber.
When you are winning a war almost everything that happens can be claimed to be right and wise.
You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life.

Ronald Reagan Quotes

"The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they're ignorant: It's just that they know so much that isn't so."
Above all, we must realize that no arsenal, or no weapon in the arsenals of the world, is so formidable as the will and moral courage of free men and women. It is a weapon our adversaries in today's world do not have.
All the waste in a year from a nuclear power plant can be stored under a desk.
Approximately 80% of our air pollution stems from hydrocarbons released by vegetation, so let's not go overboard in setting and enforcing tough emission standards from man-made sources
Come here to this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, open this gate! Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.
Double, no triple, our troubles and we'd still be better off than any other people on earth. It is time that we recognized that ours was, in truth, a noble cause.
Facts are stupid things.
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.
Freedom prospers when religion is vibrant and the rule of law under God is acknowledged.
Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves.
Governments tend not to solve problems, only to rearrange them.
History teaches that war begins when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap.
How can a president not be an actor?
How do you tell a communist? Well, it's someone who reads Marx and Lenin. And how do you tell an anti-Communist? It's someone who understands Marx and Lenin.
I have wondered at times what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the US Congress.
I will stand on, and continue to use, the figures I have used, because I believe they are correct. Now, I'm not going to deny that you don't now and then slip up on something; no one bats a thousand.
In Israel, free men and women are every day demonstrating the power of courage and faith. Back in 1948 when Israel was founded, pundits claimed the new country could never survive. Today, no one questions that. Israel is a land of stability and democracy in a region of tryanny and unrest.
Let us ask ourselves; "What kind of people do we think we are?".
Man is not free unless government is limited.
My philosophy of life is that if we make up our mind what we are going to make of our lives, then work hard toward that goal, we never lose - somehow we win out.
No mother would ever willingly sacrifice her sons for territorial gain, for economic advantage, for ideology.
Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because the U.S. was too strong.
Our forbearance should never be misunderstood. Our reluctance for conflict should not be misjudged as a failure of will. When action is required to preserve our national security, we will act.
Protecting the rights of even the least individual among us is basically the only excuse the government has for even existing.
Some people wonder all their lives if they've made a difference. The Marines don't have that problem.
The ultimate determinant in the struggle now going on for the world will not be bombs and rockets but a test of wills and ideas - a trial of spiritual resolve: the values we hold, the beliefs we cherish and the ideals to which we are dedicated.
The United Sates has much to offer the third world war.
There are no easy answers' but there are simple answers. We must have the courage to do what we know is morally right.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill, I did not take the oath I have just taken with the intention of presiding over the dissolution of the world's strongest economy.
Today we did what we had to do. They counted on America to be passive. They counted wrong.
We are never defeated unless we give up on God.
We have the duty to protect the life of an unborn child.
We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.
We will always remember. We will always be proud. We will always be prepared, so we will always be free.
Within the covers of the Bible are the answers for all the problems men face.
You know, if I listened to Michael Dukakis long enough, I would be convinced we're in an economic downturn and people are homeless and going without food and medical attention and that we've got to do something about the unemployed.