What the World Thinks of America: One American's Response

What the World Thinks of America

Foreign poll favours Democrat but shows hostility to US

From The Guardian.co.uk
Julian Glover
Friday October 17 2008

People around the world are pinning their hopes on Barack Obama in next month's presidential election, according to an international survey published today. It shows that America can no longer count on the friendship even of its closest neighbours and allies after eight years of the Bush presidency. Only a minority in the countries surveyed describe relations with the US as friendly.

Julian Glover reports that a newspaper poll around the world on the US election favours Obama.
The research, carried out by eight leading newspapers including the Guardian, finds overwhelming support for the Democratic candidate. He would win by a landslide in every country surveyed, including Britain, where he is ahead of the Republican candidate John McCain by 64% to 15%.

Support for Obama is stronger than backing for John Kerry in 2004, when the Guardian participated in a similar polling exercise. Then, the Democrat was the preferred candidate of 50% of British people.

The poll, conducted by papers including France's Le Monde, Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, Canada's La Presse and Mexico's Reforma, also shows that opinion of America has dropped sharply since the start of the decade. In France 75% say their view of the US has got worse or much worse since President George Bush replaced Bill Clinton in 2001; in Canada 77%; in Switzerland 86% and in Japan 62%.

People everywhere have turned to Obama. He would win by a simple majority in six of the eight countries surveyed, including Canada, where he leads McCain by 70%-14%, and Japan, where the margin is 61%-13%.

French voters are even more hostile to the Republican candidate, who gets the backing of only 5%, against 68% who hope Obama will win.

In British results, from ICM/Guardian polling, 67% of voters say their opinion of the US is worse than it was before the Bush presidency began. Only 21% say it has improved.

But the special relationship endures. People in Britain are more likely than in any of the other seven countries surveyed to say relations are friendly: 49% think this is the case, against 18% who say relations are tense and 30% who say they are neutral.

Support for an Obama presidency is strong among all types of voters in Britain - 64% want him to win. He is most popular among more prosperous voters, where he has 71% backing, and least popular among people at the bottom of the socio-economic scale, 54% of whom want him to become president.

Elsewhere, only in Poland and Mexico, both emerging democracies, is there any hesitation about the prospect of an Obama victory. In Poland he leads by 43% to 26% and in Mexico by 46% to 13%.

Many people now fear rather than warm to America. In France 25% of voters say relations with the US are tense, against 38% who say they are friendly and 39% who think they are neutral. In Japan only 16% say friendship and 19% tension, with 62% neutral. In no country does a majority think relations should be described as friendly.

Even America's two neighbouring states are sceptical of US intentions. Only 23% of Mexicans describe relations as friendly and 28% say they are tense. In Canada, which has just re-elected a Conservative minority government, voters are strongly supportive of a Democratic presidency; 43% say relations with the US are friendly and 14% tense.

The survey also finds strong opposition to any attack on Iran and - in the six countries questioned on the issue - majority support for a rapid withdrawal of US forces from Iraq.
The possibility of military intervention in Iran is opposed by a majority everywhere except in Poland and Britain.
In Britain 47% say the next president should specifically rule out an attack, against 42% who say options should be left open.

Read the rest here

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One American's Response

Obama and the Peace of Vichy

When the German Army mounted its Western Offensive in 1940, it had 2.5 million men and 2,500 tanks. Whereas the French Army had the ability to mobilize 5 million men, the German army supported by motorized infantry units and aircraft easily secured victory. Germany's subjugation of France took just six weeks, and on June 14, 1940 German troops marched into Paris.

The shocking and ignoble surrender was made official when the French formally signed the infamous Second Compiegne Armistice on June 22, 1940. Under the terms of the armistice the Germans were to continue to occupy Northern France, while the southern unoccupied third of France was ostensibly left free to be governed by the French. A collaborationist Government was formed under the aged WWI War hero, Marshal Phillipe Petain, and its new capitol was to be in the small town of Vichy, in central France, a name forever to be associated with her dishonor. Pétain and the Vichy regime willfully collaborated with the German occupation to a high degree. The French police and the state Milice (militia) organized raids to capture Jews and others considered "undesirables" by the Germans in both the northern and southern zones.

The text from the Guardian article above is highlighted in yellow for a reason. This is why they hate America and love Obama. They hate America because we are unwilling to subject ourselves to the tyrants of this world like Hitler and Ahmadinejad. And this means war. And war means fighting and the disruption of civilian lives and the possibility of death. For some, the fear of the consequences of defending themselves is more onerous than the shame of capitulation. They have therefore embraced the cowardice of Chamberlain as their role model, and attempted to disguise their weaknesses by pretending that they are some higher form of civilized behavior called Multiculturalism.

And as it was then, so it is once again. Resignation, accomodation, and capitulation. That's the tried and true European plan for dealing with the tyrants of this world, the Hitler's and the Mussolinis, and now the mad mullahs of Iran and their apocalyptic visions of nuclear destruction. And America -- that is, that once proud and bold America, that may just be slipping from our grasp -- is thwarting their plan of unending appeasement by its promises -- indeed, by its threats -- to intervene, to once again fight for its survival.

So they want their Obama. Their universalist grand appeaser, the open friendly face of compromise, the last great hope of the fragile status quo. The world, this same cowardly Old World that still speaks so grandly of its noble traditions of honor and glory, yet so easily bartered its integrity for a coward's peace, is unhappy with us Yanks once again. We're rocking the boat.

They don't hate us because of Bush; or even because of Iraq; they hate us because we are one of the last bastions of hope for freedom and democracy in the world and we're willing to fight for it, to put our lives on the line for it. We're an embarrassing reminder, we represent something they have long ago abandoned: manly honor and moral integrity. So they want an nonthreatening Muslim-friendly Chamberlain to represent them in the world court and to sue for peace with the Devil.

For at least two generations now we Americans have been taking it on the chin from ignorant, self-righteous student activists and disillusioned psuedo-intellectuals from here at home and from around the world, brought up on that pervasive academic witches brew of those Marxist-driven, Moscow-coordinated, sanctimonious and cynically manipulated student protest movements of the 60s. We -- and you -- are now living with the bitter fruits of their destructive labors. Cynicism and disillusionment have become a refined art form throughout Old Europe and the UK, the motley uniform of the latest anti-capitalist, anti-American, antiwar avant-garde. To be wise is to be cynical, distrustful, and anti-American.

To be wise in 2008 is to vote for Obama and appease the Devil and hope for a few more years of diminishing freedom and tenuous peace. It's an old familiar hope, an old familiar plan. It's called the Peace of Vichy. - rg

Excerpts form The New Barbarians and Resignation, Accomodation and Capitulation.

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Poor Little Rich Michelle

Cross posted from Monkey in the Middle

“I know we’re spending — I added it up for the first time — we spend between the two kids, on extracurriculars outside the classroom, we’re spending about $10,000 a year on piano and dance and sports supplements and so on and so forth,” Mrs. Obama tells the women. “And summer programs. That’s the other huge cost. Barack is saying, ‘Whyyyyyy are we spending that?’ And I’m saying, ‘Do you know what summer camp costs?’”

Poor Michelle Obama. She and her candidate hubby Barack only make a combined income of $481,000 a year. Yet they can't afford piano lessons, sports lessons, dance class and summer camp for their daughters.

Poor, poor Michelle. Her candidate hubby had only 2 best sellers, bringing in millions of dollars in royalties. Yet they are having trouble saving for their daughters' college education.

What will they do?

Trying to look like a middle-class family, Michelle Obama made the statement above. But let us look at the facts.

FACT: They make $481,000 in combined income. This puts them in the top 2% of all US taxpayers. Middle class they are not.

FACT: Michelle Obama doesn't do housework. She has had maids, nannies, and gardners. The average American can only dream of those luxuries.

FACT: Michelle and Barack Obama went to the best schools in the nation. Universities that cost $50,000 a year. Most Americans if they go to college, can only afford city or state schools.

FACT: Michelle and Barack Obama send their children to the best (expensive) private schools in the Chicago area. Most Americans send their children to public schools because they cannot afford the tuition to the private schools.

FACT: The Obamas are rich! They are not middle class. They do not struggle to make ends meet. They do not worry how they can afford gas and food, let alone the luxuries of piano and dance lessons for their children.

Michelle I have some advise for you. I know how you can afford all the luxuries for your daughters. You can send them to the YMCA. They have dance, music and sports all in one place. They have reasonable fees and a great staff to help you. You can even join and use their gym equipment instead of the expensive health club you and Barack use. But then again, with the elitist attitude you and Barack have, you'd probably decide not to. After all you would have to associate with real Americans. The Middle Class and poor.

UPDATE: (Hat tip to Jem of America Needs Sarah Palin) Since writing this, it has come to my attention the indulgences that Michelle Obama has.

Michelle Obama ordered lobster apps, two whole steamed lobsters, Iranian caviar, and Champagne at the Waldorf Wednesday afternoon when she was there with her dear hubby for a meeting.

You can view the room service check here. And they want to be considered Middle Class? Not in this plane of existence.

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Trial-Heat Election Model Predicts 52.7 McCain Victory

Trial-Heat Election Model Predicts 52.7 McCain Victory

Cross posted from American Power
Hat tip to Great Satan's Girlfriend

By Donald Douglas
Friday, October 17, 2008

Even the most sophisticated political science models are likely to exclude relevant variables contributing to the outcome of a presidential election, and thus - while often quite good - I've normally considered presidential forecasting research as knife-sharpening exercises rather than particularly reliable predictions of general election voting outcomes.That said, with the intensity of this year's race more dramatic than any election in my lifetime, I've been paying some attention to the symposium on forecasting the 2008 elections at PS: Political Science & Politics, the journal of the profession at the American Political Science Association.The symposium features ten research articles, both on the presidential race and the congressional elections.Considering all the attention in the media and the blogosphere to a seeming Barack Obama November landslide, readers might want to mull over the piece from James Campbell, "The Trial-Heat Forecast of the 2008 Presidential Vote: Performance and Value Considerations in an Open-Seat Election."Campbell's model combines Gallup's Labor Day "trial-heat" poll findings (head-to-head polls) with second-quarter GDP growth rates into a forecasting model that - in its most recent specifications, from 1992 to 2004 - has been accurate within one-half a percentage point of Gallup's final pre-election survey.

Here's how Campbell describes the model (with citations excluded):
In drawing heavily upon the preference polls, the models reflect both retrospective and (pre-campaign) prospective evaluations by the voters. While some voters may simply cast a verdict on whether they are satisfied with the performance of the in-party, other voters evaluate the issue positions, values, and character traits of the candidates and can do much of this even before the general-election campaign gets underway. Yet others may weigh both retrospective and prospective considerations in forming early vote inclinations. Unlike approval ratings, the trial-heat polls tap evaluations produced by whatever mix of prospective and retrospective considerations that voters in a particular year find convincing. The use of the early preference polls also allows the forecast to reflect the candidates’ relative success in uniting their parties’ bases at the outset of the campaign. This is an important aspect of the models since early party unity is more important to the overall vote than either the unity of partisans deciding later in the campaign or the division of later-deciding swing voters."Retrospective voting" refers to voters deciding their pick on the basis of the incumbent party's past policy performance: "What have you done for me lately?"

What Campbell finds, however, is that trial-heat models don't assume retrospective evaluations as a valid predictor of voter outcomes. What's key is that candidates matter, but also that open-seat elections are more closely decided presidential races (than when an incumbent is running for reelection), and that "dead-heat" contests are more likely in a open-seat election within a competitive party system environment.Frankly, that sounds a lot like the state of the 2008 campaign is it now stands. As of today, Gallup shows a virtual dead-heat in the presidential horse race, with Barack Obama leading John McCain 49 to 47 percent among likely voters. As Campbell notes:
In short, the greater competition and less retrospective character of open-seat elections makes preferences polls particularly better suited than presidential approval ratings to predict the vote in open-seat elections."Preference polls" are those on the incumbent president's public approval ratings, and the implication here is that George W. Bush's historic low approval rates are likely to have a marginal impact on the outcome of the election.Here's Campbell's conclusion:
There are ... however, good reasons to think that a big Obama win might not be in the cards. If voters are not purely retrospective or, at least, consider the presidential candidates’ records as well as the administration’s performance, if open-seat elections are more prospectively decided and more closely fought, and if elections for third-terms are fought on a level playing field rather than one tilted against the in-party, then we may be in for tight race....

So, what should we anticipate? What are the forecasts of the trial-heat forecast and its companion convention bump equation? First, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ August release of the real GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 3.3%(annualized). Second, the preference poll conducted by Gallup from September 5 to 7, the first poll in September after the conventions, indicated that 49% expressed a preference for Senator John McCain, 44% expressed a preference for Senator Barack Obama, and that the remaining 7% favored a third-party candidate or were undecided. Converted to two-party preferences, Senator McCain as the in-party candidate had 52.7% of the two-party split. Plugging the second-quarter growth rate and the Labor Day preference poll numbers into the trial-heat equation produces a forecast that Senator McCain should be expected to receive 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. Based on the out-of-sample errors of this equation, the likelihood that Senator McCain will receive the vote plurality is 83%. The companion convention-bump equation predicts a vote of 52.2%. This is based on the pre-convention preference poll split of 50% for McCain, a net convention bump of 2.7%, and the secondquarter GDP growth rate used in the trial-heat forecast equation. Based on the out-of-sample errors of this equation, there is a 76% probability that Senator McCain will receive a plurality of the national two-party popular vote.As noted in the introduction to this post, election forecasts are limited to the variables specified in the model, and Campbell's forecast doesn't seem to be catching the impact of dramatic late economic shocks (like the past few weeks), as well as other factors unique to this year, such as considerably likely variation between reported survey responses and actual election day vote-behavior (the possibility of a "Bradley effect" dampening the support for the Democratic ticket).

That said, given uncertain market trends (up-and-down again stock rallies), the potential effect on the polls from John McCain's improved debate performance, and the unknown impact of party mobilization and youth turnout on election day, this race is going down to the wire as a potentially 50-50 election. Given this analysis, the GOP ticket is performing much better than would be expected in this year's prevailing electoral environment, and it's way too soon to be announcing a Democratic Party landslide.

Footnote: Skeptics of the case made here are encouraged to check some of the other research pieces at the symposium, especially, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien's, "Leading Economic Indicators, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote."

Donald Douglas is an Associate Professor of Political Science teaching in Southern California.

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Honor and Remember: Sign the Petition

Published by Honor and Remember, Inc., The Dispatch is devoted to keeping you informed about milestones, events and stories associated with the Honor and Remember Flag Campaign.

OUR MISSION: Create, establish and promote a nationally recognized flag that would fly continuously as a visible reminder to people and nations, specifically for all lives lost in defense of our established freedoms.
www.honorandremember.org/mission.html





Excerpt from the latest Dispatch:

Petition Results


As of the publication of this newsletter, there are well over 7000 total petition signatures. The numbers continue to grow consistently, and we are proud of the response of so many in support. If you haven't signed the petition, please follow the link now. And if you can spread the word to your friends and relatives, you will help us build the groundswell we need to accomplish our mission: 1.6 million names.

www.honorandremember.org/petition.html

You may regularly check results at www.honorandremember.org/petitiondonate.htmlAny column can be sorted by clicking on the top headings. Support the Cause

As mentioned previously, we continue presenting personalized flags in fulfillment of our charitable goals. Flags are being donated by veterans organizations, businesses and individuals. Ceremony's this month will include the USS Cole families in Norfolk, VA and 3 mothers at a film premier in Washington state. http://thecorporalsdiary.com

Currently, we have more than 50 specific requests for flags from Gold Star mothers and almost 400 more yet to be contacted in just two state Gold Star groups. With the addition of the American Gold Star Mothers, there are literally thousands more parents that we need to locate and present with the Honor and Remember Flag throughout the nation. This mission is daunting. But it can and will be accomplished.

Please consider making a Contribution personally or through your business, organization, CFC or United way. Also, please note that local veteran chapters and branches are raising funds for specific Gold Star mothers in their communities.

There are many expenses related to conducting this national campaign. Any support you can give is essential. If you would like to contribute to the mission of Honor and Remember, to establish a nationally recognized flag that honors lives lost in military service to America, and provide flags for parents, please click on the following link.
www.honorandremember.org/donate.html

Additionally, corporate sponsors who support our troops are needed in order to launch a full-time effort to spread the word and provide flags to Gold Star families. If you know of a business or organization that might consider becoming a benefactor or sponsor, please contact george@honorandremember.org

How Can I Help?


One important area previously mentioned is to let your congressional representatives know about H.R. 7111 and the importance of supporting it. Below is a sample message you can copy and send:

https://forms.house.gov/wyr/welcome.shtml

"I am writing to urge your support for H. R. 7111, recently introduced in Congress by Rep. Thelma Drake and Rep. Randy Forbes, to establish the "Honor and Remember" flag as a national symbol of the 1.6 million Americans who have given their lives in service to our country since its founding in 1776.

In the 232 years of our national history, brave men and women have made the ultimate sacrifice in wars and conflicts as members of the United States military. Yet there is no tangible, national symbol by which we honor these heroes specifically, nothing to remind us daily that they should not be forgotten, nothing to say "thank you."

Therefore, I ask you to vote in favor of Rep. Drake's bill and help establish a permanent and visible reminder for all Americans that "Freedom is Never Free." Thank you.


Flags For Christmas:
Just a note to let you know that hand sewing personalized flags takes three to four weeks. If you have given any thought to buying flags for yourself or someone you know for Christmas, you may want to order soon. The cut off for receiving flag orders to be delivered in time for Christmas will be November 30th. Other items, unless we run out fast, will have a cut off of December 15th.

We ask that you fly the Honor and Remember Flag at your home, church, business, organization or on your car or motorcycle. There are other ways to show support, such as T-shirts, hats, magnets, stickers and more.

Our flags and many other items are available now for purchase at our website:
www.honorandremember.org/catalog.html

Thank you all for your support!
PLEASE FORWARD THIS IMPORTANT UPDATE TO AT LEAST TEN PEOPLE.

Please GO and SIGN THE PETITION!!!!!!!

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Ayers is not welcome here.

Cross posted from Monkey in the Middle


So much has been written about Bill "I didn't bomb enough" Ayers to fill a couple of books.

• Former member of the Weather Underground.
• Fugitive from the law.
• Radical liberal.
• Radical teaching methods.
• Good friend of Barack Hussein Obama.

Just the type of person the liberal, collegate establishment loves. So why did the University of Nebraska cancel his upcoming speech?

Safety concerns have forced University of Nebraska-Lincoln officials to cancel plans for William Ayers to speak on campus.

Ayers, who founded a group in the late 1960s that claimed responsibility for bombing several government buildings, was to speak Nov. 15.

But officials said Friday the university’s threat assessment group received e-mails and phone calls over the last day or two that identified safety issues.

Ayers, a University of Illinois at Chicago education professor, was invited by UNL’s College of Education and Human Sciences because of his expertise in research related to small schools and urban education.

Ayers also is vice president-elect of curriculum studies at the American Educational Research Association.

But he’s become a lightening rod in the U.S. presidential campaign for his role as founder of the Weather Underground. The group formed in the late 1960s claimed responsibility for nonfatal bombings of the Pentagon and U.S. Capitol.

Friday’s announcement comes after Gov. Dave Heineman and several other Nebraska politicians asked the university to rescind its invitation.

“Bill Ayers is a well-known radical who should never have been invited,” Heineman said earlier Friday. “The people of Nebraska are outraged.

“This has gone beyond the University of Nebraska. It’s gotten to citizens all across this state, and they’re not happy because this is a public university.”

The American people have different views than those of the collegate elites that run the universities in this nation. People like Ayers should be denied speaking engagements everywhere. I just wish he would be fired from his job at the University of Illinois at Chicago, but I wouldn't hold my breath over that.

Bill Ayers is a liability to any university. He should be in prison for life and would have been if he and his wife wasn't released on a technicality of law.

Bill Ayers, just another reason to question Barack Hussein Obama's judgement. And yet another reason not to vote for Obama in November.

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